GuardCap - Guardian Capital
Long-term thinking, hallmark of our approach
Were you to look back at these reviews over the years, you would conclude that the views proffered have barely changed in nearly two decades. That is, to be diversified across geographies and asset classes, and to focus on the signal rather than the noise.
Frenetic is a word which has to do some heavy lifting to match the events of the last quarter. With it comes the knowledge that writing reviews like this is a hiding to nothing. By the time each paragraph is written, something else has happened, and the lines between truth and lie, fact and delusion are almost impossible to untangle.
This is the time of year when prognostications bloom. The reality is that nobody has any idea what will happen in the year ahead. Forecasts tend to reflect the ideological or emotional views of the forecaster, and the strongest correlation of any forecast is with what happened in the past year.
This is only the third review since Donald Trump ascended his golden throne, but it feels much longer than that. With the world’s indispensable economy an unwitting participant in a TV reality show, the task of trying to scribble anything sensible about what might happen has become an exercise in magical thinking.
Looking back at the last of these reviews, three months old, instead of finding something relevant, it all seems like old hat. Three months ago, we had become used to politics as reality TV, policies pulled from the dustbin of history and waking up every morning with a groan as the news unspooled. Still true, but somehow the noise level has risen, perhaps to compensate for the familiarity with chaos.
Last time out, we didn’t comment much on politics. While the new US administration was yet to take office, one had to assume that it would be thoughtful and logical in its policy agenda.
Politics don’t matter. At least that’s what you might have concluded from last quarter’s review which avoided any mention of the US election, the political turmoil in France or Germany, the mess in the Middle East or Ukraine.
Market participants are now certain that there will be no ‘technical’ recession, and the sunlit uplands of equities frolicking in fine weather await.
When you write reviews with a quarterly cadence, sometimes it’s hard to think of new things to say. Things go up, things go down, things go sideways, or some variant thereof.
